Saturday, August 31, 2013

Is LinkedIn Copying From Facebook?

Business networking power LinkedIn (LNKD) announced robust second quarter results. Total revenue surged 59% year-over-year to $364 million, easily exceeding consensus estimates. Non-GAAP earnings per share swelled 137% year-over-year to $0.38, smashing consensus expectations. Free cash flow totaled $31 million, equal to 9% of total revenue.

(click to enlarge)

Image Source: LNKD 2Q 2013 Investor Presentation

Above all, membership growth continues to be the contributing factor to LinkedIn's success, in our view. Membership surged 9% sequentially and 37% year-over-year to 238 million users. As a result of membership expansion, LinkedIn is experiencing strong growth in unique visitors and page views. The story is simple: as LinkedIn network swells in membership, we see more advertisers, more employers and more job seekers all approaching LinkedIn with different needs.

This powerful "network effect" played out well in LinkedIn's "Talent Solutions" product, as revenue advanced 69% year-over-year to $205 million. Recruiters and corporate human resources departments are realizing the value of having strong analytical tools and easy access to a database of millions of potential employees. Importantly, we're seeing the firm develop effective new products. CEO Jeff Weiner specifically described one of the new products, saying on the conference call:

Top 10 Biotech Stocks To Buy For 2014

"We also launched CheckIn in Q2, used by recruiters primarily at campus job fairs. CheckIn simplifies how recruiters collect and manage candidate information at these events by enabling college students, among the fastest growing member segments on LinkedIn, to use their LinkedIn profile to register with companies that are hiring. CheckIn became available to all Talent Solution! s customers in July and we are seeing strong early demand for the mobile product."

"Marketing Solutions" revenue rose 36% year-over-year to $86 million, driven largely by the increased number of eyeballs visiting LinkedIn. In a sense, LinkedIn is mimicking both Facebook (FB) and Twitter in pursing sponsored stories that blend in as part of the news feed (rather than using only sidebar and banner ads). Such advertisements have proven to be effective (at Facebook), so we suspect the new ads would be fairly valuable to LinkedIn. Of course, the firm will have to maintain the right balance of advertisements and user-generated content in order to retain users.

On the employee side, premium subscriptions revenue jumped 68% year-over-year to $73 million. LinkedIn premium subscriptions generally receive positive reviews, and it appears that the premium subscription gives users more valuable search and contact features not readily available for free users. This rate of growth will likely slow as a greater percentage of the membership base has a premium account.

The cost side of the equation continues to worry some investors. Sales and marketing costs rose 61% year-over-year to $122 million, but they were only up 50 basis points as a percentage of sales to 33.6%. Product development costs increased 59% year-over-year to $96 million, equal to 26.3% of total sales. While we would like to see marketing costs come down as a percentage of revenue, we are seeing the firm's increased spending lead to higher sales. Similarly, we do not mind seeing LinkedIn spend a large amount of money on research and development because we think the company is creating some interesting new products that will inevitably help drive revenue growth.

Looking ahead to the third quarter, LinkedIn expects adjusted EBITDA of $81-$83 million driven by revenue of $367-$373 million. For the full-year, the company raised its revenue range to $1.455-$1.475 billion from the earlier forecast of $1.43-$1.46 billion.! The adju! sted EBITDA outlook for the full-year was revised upward to $340-$355 million, compared to the prior expectation of $330-$345 million. Neither change has much impact on LinkedIn's valuation, as most of the firm's intrinsic worth rests on how it looks 5-10 years from now.

Valuentum's Take

LinkedIn continues to execute on revenue growth initiatives, though free cash flow generation remains relatively weak. The firm's business model is still relatively untested, and we could see dramatic declines when economic conditions deteriorate. We also believe Facebook translates much better to mobile consumption. We remain on the sidelines in our Best Ideas portfolio at this time.

Source: Is LinkedIn Copying From Facebook?

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

Friday, August 30, 2013

Impax Challenges Toviaz Patent - Analyst Blog

Impax Laboratories Inc. (IPXL) recently announced that it is looking to get its generic version of Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and UCB Pharma GmbH's Toviaz (fesoterodine fumarate) tablets (4 mg and 8 mg) approved in the US. The company has filed an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) containing a paragraph IV certification with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its candidate.

The FDA informed the innovator companies about the ANDA filing following its acceptance of the same.

Toviaz is approved for reducing overactive bladder (OAB) symptoms. As per IMS Health, 12 month US sales of Toviaz (4 mg and 8 mg) were $159 million as of May 31, 2013.

Once the generic version is approved, Global Pharmaceuticals, which handles Impax' generic operations, will commercialize the product.

Pfizer and UCB have filed a patent infringement lawsuit against Impax in the US District Court for the District of Delaware. The filing of the lawsuit within the stipulated time period under the Hatch-Waxman Act ensures that the FDA cannot grant final approval to Impax' generic for up to 30 months or the court's decision, whichever is earlier.

We note that Impax is actively working on strengthening its generic products portfolio. In May 2013, the company launched its authorized generic version of AstraZeneca's (AZN) Zomig tablets and orally disintegrating tablets in the US as per the terms of its agreement with AstraZeneca. Zomig is approved for treating headaches due to migraine in adults.

Impax currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Other generic players like Mylan, Inc. (MYL) currently look better positioned with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).


Thursday, August 29, 2013

Top Casino Companies For 2014

On Tuesday, SHFL Entertainment (NASDAQ: SHFL  ) will release its latest quarterly results. The company formerly known as Shuffle Master faces a huge opportunity in the rapidly evolving gaming market, but it will have to work hard to cash in.

SHFL Entertainment makes a variety of products that casinos use, ranging from its namesake Shuffle Master card-shuffling devices, to tracking devices designed to analyze table-game play and detect potential fraud. As the industry moves toward more electronic gaming, however, the company has also seen success in its electronic table systems and other related machines. Let's take an early look at what's been happening with SHFL Entertainment over the past quarter, and what we're likely to see in its quarterly report.

Stats on SHFL Entertainment

Top Casino Companies For 2014: (XTRN)

Las Vegas Railway Express Inc. focuses to re-establish a conventional passenger train service between the Las Vegas and Los Angeles metropolitan areas. It plans to establish a ?Vegas-style? passenger train service. The company is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Top Casino Companies For 2014: Wynn Resorts Limited(WYNN)

Wynn Resorts, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, ownership, and operation of destination casino resorts. The company owns and operates Wynn Las Vegas casino resort in Las Vegas, which includes approximately 22 food and beverage outlets comprising 5 dining restaurants; 2 nightclubs; 1 spa and salon; 1 Ferrari and Maserati automobile dealership; wedding chapels; an 18-hole golf course; meeting space; and foot retail promenade featuring boutiques. Wynn Las Vegas casino resort also features approximately 147 table games, 1 baccarat salon, private VIP gaming rooms, 1 poker room, 1,842 slot machines, and 1 race and sports book. It also owns and operates an Encore at Wynn Las Vegas resort, a destination casino resort located adjacent to Wynn Las Vegas that features a 2,034 all-suite hotel, as well as a casino with 95 table games, 1 sky casino, 1 baccarat salon, private VIP gaming rooms, and 778 slot machines. In addition, the company operates Wyn n Macau casino resort located in the Macau Special Administrative Region of the People?s Republic of China. Wynn Macau casino resort features approximately 595 hotel rooms and suites, 410 table games, 935 slot machines, 1 poker room, 1 sky casino, 6 restaurants, 1 spa and salon, lounges, meeting facilities, and retail space featuring boutiques. Further, it operates Encore at Wynn Macau resort located adjacent to Wynn Macau. Encore at Wynn Macau resort features approximately 410 luxury suites and 4 villas, as well as casino gaming space, including a sky casino consisting of 60 table games and 80 slot machines, 2 restaurants, 1 luxury spa, and retail space. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    One gambling player that's starting to move within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade is Wynn Resorts (WYNN), a developer, owner and operator of destination casino resorts. This stock has been trending hot so far in 2013, with shares up 24%.

    If you look at the chart for Wynn Resorts, you'll notice that this stock has been uptrending strong for the last two months, with shares moving higher from its low of $120.96 to its intraday high of $140.82 a share. During that uptrend, shares of WYNN have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. Shares of WYNN have been consolidating for the last few weeks, moving between just below $137 to just above $140 a share. A high-volume move above the upper-end of its recent sideways trading chart pattern could trigger a big breakout trade for shares of WYNN.

    Traders should now look for long-biased trades in WYNN if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance at $140.82 to its 52-week high at $144.99 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 1.30 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then WYNN will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $160 to $165 a share, or even $170 a share.

    Traders can look to buy WYNN off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below its 50-day moving average of $132.51 a share. One can also buy WYNN off strength once it takes out those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

  • [By Jeanine Poggi]

    Wynn Resorts'(WYNN) run up of more than 55% this year has caused Wall Street to question its valuation.

    Currently, eight analysts have a buy rating on Wynn, 16 say hold, two rate it underperform rating and one says to sell the stock.

    "With little on the growth horizon in the intermediate term, new competition from Cotai coming in 2011 and 2012 ... and the unclear timing of a true recovery in Las Vegas, we see few catalysts not yet priced-in to pull valuation higher than current levels," Bain wrote in a note following its third-quarter earnings report.

    During the quarter, Wynn lost $33.5 million, or 27 cents a share, compared with a profit of $34.2 million, or 28 cents, in the year-ago period. The loss was attributed to charges related to servicing its debt. On an adjusted basis, Wynn actually earned 39 cents, matching Wall Street's outlook.

    Total Revenue grew to $1 billion from $773.1 million, better than the $990.8 million analysts predicted.

    In Macau, Wynn reported a 50% surge in revenue to $671.4 million, while EBITDA was $198 million, up 54.5% from $128.2 million in the third quarter of 2009. Earlier in the year the company opened its $600 million Wynn Encore Macau, which added 414 rooms to the market.

    Looking ahead, Wynn expects to break ground on its Cotai development in early 2011. The $2 billion to $3 billion project is slated to open in 2015, and management said it would provide additional details following its fourth-quarter earnings report.

    In Las Vegas, CEO Steve Wynn says the Strip is on the road to recovery. "I believe we have seen the bottom in Las Vegas," he said during the company's third-quarter conference call. "I don't know how fast it is going to get better but it isn't going to get any worse."

    Las Vegas revenue inched up 3.1% to $334.5 million during the three-month period, and EBITDA grew 9.3% to $76.5 million.

    Wynn also issued a cash dividend of $8 a share payable on Dec. 7 to sharehold! ers of record on Nov. 23.

5 Best Stocks To Own For 2014: Pinnacle Entertainment Inc.(PNK)

Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. owns, develops, and operates casinos, and related hospitality and entertainment facilities in the United States. It operates casinos, such as L'Auberge du Lac in Lake Charles, Louisiana; River City Casino and Lumiere Place in St. Louis, Missouri; Boomtown New Orleans in New Orleans, Louisiana; Belterra Casino Resort in Vevay, Indiana; Boomtown Bossier City in Bossier City, Louisiana; and Boomtown Reno in Reno, Nevada. The company also operates River Downs racetrack in southeast Cincinnati, Ohio. As of May 26, 2011, it operated seven casinos and one racetrack. The company was formerly known as Hollywood Park, Inc. and changed its name to Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. in February 2000. Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. was founded in 1935 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jeanine Poggi]

    Pinnacle Entertainment(PNK) was the great transition story of 2010, with shares spiking about 45% this year.

    The regional casino operator's most impressive story has been in its gross margins, as management, under the leadership of new CEO Anthony Sanfilippo, is in the process of increasing the company's operating efficiencies and prudently allocating capital. Analysts believe Pinnacle is in the early stages of this process, and will continue to drive revenue growth.

    In its third quarter, Pinnacle reported a surprise profit of 10 cents a share on an adjusted basis, better than consensus estimates of a loss of 7 cents. Revenue grew 15% to $287.8 million, while property-level margins reached 23.4%, also ahead of forecasts.

    Last month, Pinnacle purchased Cincinnati's River Downs Racetrack for $45 million. The deal includes 155 acres, 35 of which are still undeveloped. The transaction is expected to close by the end of the first quarter of 2011.

    This deal could generate significant returns in the event that Ohio decides to legalize video lottery terminals at racetracks, Santarelli said.

    Pinnacle is also in the process of looking for a buyer of its oceanfront land in Atlantic City, where it originally intended to build a $1.5 billion casino, before squelching plans. The casino operator bought the land in 2006 for $270 million from groups affiliated with Carl Icahn and later added another piece of land for $70 million.

    While the land's currently value is $38 million, Pinnacle insists it will not sell it on the cheap, holding out for the best deal.

    Pinnacle currently has $228 million in cash and $375 million of availability under its revolver.

Top Casino Companies For 2014: MGM Resorts International(MGM)

MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, primarily owns and operates casino resorts in the United States. The company?s resorts offer gaming, hotel, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities. It also owns and operates golf courses and a golf club. As of December 31, 2010, the company owned and operated 15 properties located in Nevada, Mississippi, and Michigan; and has 50% investments in 4 other casino resorts in Nevada, Illinois, and Macau. In addition, MGM Resorts International has an agreement with the Mashantucket Pequot Tribal Nation, which owns and operates a casino resort in Connecticut, to carry the ?MGM Grand? brand name. The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts International was founded in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Hawkinvest]

    MGM Resorts International (MGM) is one of the world's largest hotel and casino companies, based in Las Vegas. Since December, MGM shares have been trading in a range of about $9, to almost $15 per share. The stock is now at the upper limit of the recent trading range which means that the risk of holding or buying this stock right now, could be elevated. MGM shares have rallied with the markets but appear extended and vulnerable to a sell-off. The company has a heavy debt load and it has been reporting losses. The balance sheet has about $13.45 billion in debt and only about $1.97 billion in cash. MGM could be impacted by higher oil prices because many consumers could cut back on spending if they go to Las Vegas, and some might decide not to go at all, and instead opt for a "staycation." With MGM facing challenges and the shares near recent highs, it could make sen se to sell now and buy on dips later this year.

    Here are some key points for MGM:

    Current share price: $14.18

    The 52 week range is $7.40 to $16.05

    Earnings estimates for 2011: a loss of 53 cents per share

    Earnings estimates for 2012: a loss of 39 cents per share

    Annual dividend: none

Top Casino Companies For 2014: Boyd Gaming Corporation(BYD)

Boyd Gaming Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-jurisdictional gaming company in the United States. As of December 31, 2011, the company owned and operated 1,042,787 square feet of casino space, containing approximately 25,973 slot machines, 655 table games, and 11,418 hotel rooms. It also owned and operated 16 gaming entertainment properties located in Nevada, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, Indiana, and New Jersey. In addition, the company owns and operates a pari-mutuel jai-alai facility located in Dania Beach, Florida, as well as a travel agency in Hawaii. Further, it holds a 50% controlling interest in the limited liability company that operates Borgata Hotel Casino and Spa in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Boyd Gaming Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Hesler]

    Boyd Gaming(BYD) posted a bigger-than-expected drop in its second-quarter earnings, citing weak performance in Las Vegas, the Midwest and the South.

    During the quarter, the casino operator earned $3.4 million, or 4 cents a share, a 73% plunge from $12.8 million, or 15 cents, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings came in at 5 cents a share, significantly lower than the 10 cents Wall Street predicted for Boyd.

    Boyd's revenue fell 6% to $578.4 million, also short of the consensus of $588 million.

    "The lingering effects of the recession have left consumers unusually sensitive to shifts in the economy, and they now react more quickly to economic data and other developments, such as fluctuations in the stock market," said CEO Keith Smith, in a statement. "Although conditions remain uncertain, we believe long-term stabilizing trends are still in place, and that year-over-year growth is achievable by the end of 2010."

    In the Las Vegas locals market, the rate of decline in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose to 16.2% from 10.8%, J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff wrote in a note. Boyd previously reported a 9.9% decline for its Borgata property in Atlantic City. Revenue came in at $186.9 million, a 2.4% decrease from the year-ago period.

    "We think second-quarter results are less important than the coming operating results in the second-half of 2010, when the Atlantic City market faces increased regional competitive pressures from tables in Pennsylvania and West Virginia and the first Philadelphia casino opens this summer," J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff wrote in a note.

    Greff reaffirmed his underweight rating on Boyd, given increasing competition in Atlantic City, a weak recovery in the Las Vegas locals market and stagnant regional gaming trends.

    While there is no doubt the Atlantic City gaming market remains one of the most depressed, Borgata continues to dominate the market and gain share. Atlant! ic City saw gaming revenues plunge 11.1% in June to $286.8 million. Boyd co-owns Borgata with MGM Resorts, which is currently in the process of divesting its 50% stake.

Top Casino Companies For 2014: Penn National Gaming Inc.(PENN)

Penn National Gaming, Inc. and its subsidiaries own and manage gaming and pari-mutuel properties in the United States. It operates approximately 27,000 gaming machines; 500 table games; and 2,000 hotel rooms in 23 facilities in 16 jurisdictions, including Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ontario. The company was formerly known as PNRC Corp. and changed its name to Penn National Gaming, Inc. in 1994. Penn National Gaming, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is based in Wyomissing, Pennsylvania.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Quickel]

    Penn National Gaming(PENN) squeaked past its guidance through improved cost controls, and investors praised its efforts.

    But expectations were low, and its upbeat outlook shouldn't be viewed as a message that regional markets are recovering. "Going forward, we project soft regional gaming revenue results over the next three to six months, as we do not expect to see a significant increase in consumer spending patterns given the uncertain economic environment," J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff wrote in a note.

    Penn National raised its full-year earnings guidance to $1.18 from $1.13 a share, and up its revenue outlook by $26 million to $2.44 billion from $2.41 billion.

    During the second quarter, the company earned $9.2 million, or 9 cents a share, compared with $28.5 million, or 27 cents, in the year-ago period. Excluding items, Penn actually earned 29 cents a share, a penny higher than estimates.

    Revenue rose 3% to $598.3 million, higher than the $597.1 million Wall Street projected. The upside was driven by both better revenues and margins and was generally broad-based across many properties, especially larger venues in Charlestown, Lawrenceburg and Grantville, Pa.

    Penn National rolled out table games in West Virginia and Pennsylvania during the quarter, which should be a growth catalyst moving forward. The company also plans to open a slot facility in Maryland on Sept. 30 and expects its Toldeo, Ohio, location to open in the first-half of 2012. Its Columbus project is slated to open in the second-half of 2012.

    The company repurchased 409,000 shares during the quarter. "[This] sends a message to investors on the value of its equity, but perhaps indicating the lack of near-term acquisition opportunities," J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff wrote in a note.

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Baird Grabs 7 Wells Fargo Advisors With $1.9B

Baird said early Tuesday that it added seven veteran financial advisors in Houston, all of whom are legacy A.G. Edwards & Sons advisors recently with Wells Fargo Advisors (WFC). The advisors have more than $1.9 billion in client assets and focus on retirement planning for executives in the energy business.

To enhance its support of such retirement work, the employee-owned broker-dealer also announced that it rolled out Baird Retirement Management, a program to help advisors nationwide boost their retirement planning and investment consulting services.

Jarrett Kovics“Baird reminds legacy A.G. Edwards advisors of many of the characteristics of what they loved about A. G. Edwards,” before it became part of Wachovia and Wells Fargo, said Jarrett Kovics (left), director of the Texas market for Baird Private Wealth Management, which now includes about 715 advisors and more than $80 billion in assets, in an interview with AdvisorOne.

“They have a strong memory of what they felt was most important” in the culture of their firm, explained Kovics, who joined Baird from Morgan Stanley Smith Barney (MS) in 2010. “We are different from A.G. Edwards, but the cultural similarities get [advisors] to the table … and it becomes a really good fit for them and the quality of their work.”

Joining Baird in Houston are Richard Ashcroft and Darrell Pesek of the Ashcroft Pesek Group; Greg Evans, Stephen Allain and Jarred Crumley of the Evans-Allain-Crumley Group; John Barnfield; and William Barrow.  They will work out of Baird’s second office in Houston, which is located in the Memorial City district, where many energy firms are based. “You can’t find real estate there, since there’s been so much expansion and growth,” Kovics said.

Best Safest Companies To Own For 2014

In April, Baird recruited a team of seven employee advisors with about $770 million in client assets from Wells Fargo in Houston. It also opened its second office then and hired former UBS (UBS) branch manager John S. Hantak to lead the new location, which also caters to high-net-worth energy professionals and their retirement needs.

“Baird Retirement Management, which we’ve been working on for a while, could support  teams of financial advisors with a retirement focus on technology companies in Silicon Valley or steel companies in Upstate New York,” Kovics said. “The resources emphasize marketing and other materials specific to retirement planning … it’s another attractive selling point for Baird.”

---

Check out Baird Expands Recruiting of Trainees, Advisors.

Friday, August 23, 2013

ETFs: Myths and Merits

ETFs as an investment product were introduced in US in 1993 and have garnered a good amount of attention in the last decade. In India, we have seen a stream of ETF launches by several fund houses to catch on the hype.  ETFs are basically open-ended index funds listed on stock exchanges but, do ETFs really make sense for retail investors? If yes, what are the pros and cons?

Advantages of ETFs

� ETFs allow diversification into companies or assets or themes
� They are traded real time
� ETFs are inexpensive. The expenses are annual varying from 0.05% and 1.60%.
� The portfolio composition of ETFs will be available to investors on a daily basis and is transparent

Myth: ETFs are easily trade-able

Reality: They can be easily bought or sold during the market hours, which means that the prices change throughout the day as determined by the market forces.

But, ETFs do not sell individual shares directly to investors and only issue their shares in large blocks (blocks of 50,000 shares, for example) that are known as "Creation Units" (source: Securities Exchange Commission). Investors can sell their ETF shares in the secondary market, or sell the Creation Units back to the ETF. Hence, it may be difficult to exit a thinly traded ETF.

Myth: ETFs are same as mutual funds 

Reality: Unlike mutual funds, ETFs are not managed by professional fund managers nor do they have a specified mandate based on which allocation to a security is made. Also, ETFs can be purchased on margin and are lendable.

ETFs work for institutional investors as an alternative to futures by establishing a short or a long position in the market. During bear markets, the most profitable investment strategy would be to short the market. However, retail investors of mutual funds would find it hard to benefit from bear markets as most of the equity funds provide long only exposure - meaning investors would only benefit when the equity markets rise.

Thus, ETFs are for a sophisticated investor with risk appetite for a commodity or sector ETF whereas mutual funds are an investment product for the novice investor.

Myth: ETFs are actively managed investments

Reality: They form a passive form of investing and merely reflect the performance of the underlying units.

Conclusion

ETFs allow investors to expand their scope of investment into specific asset classes, sectors or countries. In India, we have however limited range of ETFs; most ETFs have exposure to Banks, Gold and benchmark indices.

In terms of size, volume and diversification, we are still a long way to go. Despite this, the recent rise in prices of Gold have resulted good inflows into Gold ETFs.

Easy information, mechanism to track ETFs and awareness about ETFs as an investment vehicle for portfolio diversification should result better inflows in future.

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Netflix Thriving on Partnerships - Analyst Blog

Top 5 Companies To Invest In 2014

Reportedly, Netflix Inc (NFLX) has signed a partnership deal with Fox Television Studios to finance The Killing, a television crime drama, after its production was cancelled by AMC Networks (AMCX) in 2012.

Under the terms of the deal, Netflix will be able to stream the show in the U.S. and Canada just three months after the show premieres on AMC's network. Netflix can also get rights to stream the show overseas.

This is not the first time that Netflix has resurrected a canned show. The company had helped in reviving Emmy Award winner show Arrested Development and streamed all new episodes on a first run basis in May this year.

Netflix continues to forge partnerships with leading studios, publishers and production companies to boost its content library. The company recently extended a multi-year partnership deal with CBS Corp (CBS), which will enable Netflix to stream new titles such as L.A. Complex, 4400, and CSI: NY in addition to the existing shows.

Moreover, Netflix recently renewed an expanded deal with PBS Distribution. The deal will help the company to stream British murder mystery The Bletchley Circle, kids pre-school show Super Why!, children shows Wild Kratts, Caillou and Arthur, documentaries such as Prohibition and Central Park Five and past seasons of non-fiction series like Nova and Secrets of the Dead.

These partnerships have not only expanded Netflix's content portfolio but also helped it to target different sections of the audience. They have also helped Netflix to venture into different genres like comedy, political thrillers, autobiographies and horror.

Netflix's diversified offerings help it to stand out among other streaming content providers such as Amazon (AMZN), HBO and Hulu. This is evident from the fact that in the last-reported quarter, the company added 2.03 million subscribers in the domestic market ! and 1.02 million subscribers in the international market.

However, higher costs owing to international ventures and licensing fees and continued subscriber losses in its DVD business are near-term headwinds. Loss from the international business, due to higher content and marketing costs, is another concern in the near term.

Nonetheless, we believe that new content streaming deals and its original content portfolio should be able to attract new subscribers both in the U.S. and international markets.

Currently, Netflix has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Saturday, August 17, 2013

CalPERS Desperately Needs to Embrace ETFs

The investment community seems to be aflutter over the fact that the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) posted strong returns for its most recent fiscal year and is embracing passively managed investment products.

CalPERS, the $262 billion pension fund responsible for keeping public employees such as DMV workers, librarians and lifeguards living the high life in retirement, had a 12.5 percent gain on investments for the fiscal year ended June 30 and earned 19 percent on its publicly traded equity holdings, according to Bloomberg.

That is nice, but CalPERS has almost $329 billion in unfunded liabilities.

CalPERS' equity portfolio is massive in terms of number of constituents, but the pension fund's top-five holdings have not exactly set the world on fire since June 30, 2012. Maybe that is a sign that as part of its new found affinity for passively managed investments, CalPERS should also embrace ETFs.

Related: Peruvian Pause With These ETFs

Over the just completed fiscal year, Exxon Mobil (NYSE: CVX) was far better, gaining 12.87 percent, showing CalPERS was rewarded for its investment in a California company. Chevron was 1.33 percent of the equity portfolio at the end of Q1.

However, another California company by the name of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) burned CalPERS to the tune of 30 percent loss from June 29, 2012-July 1, 2013. Apple was the second-largest CalPERS equity holding at the end of Q1. The other technology stock among the CalPERS top-five holdings is International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM), which lost 2.2 percent over the fund's last fiscal year. At least General Electric gained 12 percent for CalPERS.

Enter ETFs
As Bloomberg notes, the S&P 500 was up 18 percent over the same 12 months that CalPERS equity holdings returned 19 percent. However, CalPERS could have done better and generated some much needed income by plunking some of its billions into several large, highly liquid dividend ETFs.

That 19 perc! ent lags the returns offered by the the following quartet of popular dividend ETFs: The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (NYSE: VIG), the Vanguard High Dividend Yield Indx ETF (NYSE: VYM), the WisdomTree Dividend ex-Financials Fund (NYSE: DTN) and the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (NYSE: SDY). SDY outpaced CalPERS by 470 basis over the pension's most recent fiscal year.

CalPERS could have also grabbed some small-cap exposure with the high-yielding PowerShares High Yield Equity Dividend Achievers Portfolio (NYSE: PEY), which gained almost 20 percent over the time frame in question. PEY is almost 50 percent allocated to small-caps and like DTN, pays a monthly dividend.

Dividend ETFs are not just an option for CalPERS, these products are must haves because of the pension's soaring obligations. What so many of the stories that laud CalPERS' returns fail to mention is that although the fund claims its average pension is just over $2,400 a month, the number of retirees receiving $100,000 or more a year from CalPERS is soaring.

That number was just 1,841 in 2005, but surged to 14,763 last year, a 700 percent gain in a decade where inflation was 38 percent, according to the Orange County Register.

Sector Bets
Clearly, Apple and IBM have not been great trades over the past year for CalPERS or for anyone long those stocks. Both stocks are down, but CalPERS could have made 9.1 percent in the Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLK) while still getting ample Apple and IBM exposure. Those stocks currently combine for 19.6 of the ETF's weight.

Or CalPERS could have really gone outside of the box and embraced equal weight ETFs such as the Rydex S&P Equal Weight Technology ETF (NYSE: RYT). RYT gained 24 percent during the most recent CalPERS fiscal year.

As for Exxon and Chevron, at least those CalPERS holdings are up. However, there is more compelling evidence the fund's active management is failing retirees and California taxpayers. Exxon and Chevron gained an ave! rage of 9! .2 percent during the just completed CalPERS fiscal year, half the returns offered by the Vanguard Energy ETF (NYSE: VDE) over the same time.

For more on ETFs, click here.

Best Gold Stocks To Buy Right Now

(c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

Friday, August 16, 2013

Gold or MFs: Which is better for long-term investment?

Should you invest in fixed maturity plans now?

Below is the verbatim transcript of Azeez's interview with CNBC-TV18.
 
Caller Q: I have been investing in mutual funds with the aim of earning decent returns. I have invested about Rs 5 lakh with a two years horizon. However the current scenario is bad and the liquid debt fund is giving negative returns. What should I do now?

A: As you pointed out that liquid funds and debt funds have also started giving negative returns over the last couple of weeks after Reserve Bank of India intervened and tightened the liquidity.

If you have Rs 5 lakh to invest and the time horizon is about two years then you should stay away from equity, still debt will have some volatility but to my mind liquid fund have given negative returns, not because of inherent nature but there was a change in the method of computation of the net asset value (NAV). I do not think it is going to be a very long phenomena, it is going to be short-lived. Therefore, you should not be too worried as long as your timeframe is two years.

However, the question about where your money should get into. I think there is immense amount of opportunity which has emerged on the debt market side and fixed maturity plans (FMP) which was indicating a return of almost about 8-8.5 percent till a couple of weeks back, today can deliver 10 percent or 9.8 percent. So, can almost have a post tax return of about 9 percent, which is as good as, for example like 13 percent fixed deposit (FD) if you are in the highest slab, almost like 11.8-11.7 percent FD. Therefore, any of us should miss this opportunity which is an outcome of RBI's liquidity tightening.

Moving on the riskier asset classes on the debt side space on the short-term fund my best pick would be the Templeton India Short Term Income Plan , on the dynamic fund the best plan would be SBI Dynamic Fund and on the income fund category IDFC Income Fund. Having said that there is going to be volatility on the way over the next year-year-and-a-half but if you can stick to your timeframe so you will beat inflation by handsome margin going forward.    

Caller Q: I want to begin investing in mutual funds and gold considering that they are down in value currently. Please advise on which schemes are preferable.

A: In my opinion gold as an asset class is not an investment asset class going forward because it will give immense amount of trading opportunity. However, I am not a huge fan of gold for different reasons. I know gold would have bounced back from its lows but it is predominantly due to the currency depreciation. Therefore, going back to September 2011 when it touched the peak in dollar terms; if you assume the same currency rate then gold today should not have been at Rs 28,000 per 10gm but should have been at Rs 20,500 per 10gm, which to my mind would be a low level. I think currency has attributed significant portions of these gains. Therefore, I do not think gold would be a very wise investment at least from couple of year perspective.

Coming back to mutual funds, which have got beaten down in the recent time, there are debt mutual funds which have got beaten down. If somebody is starting up then should look at three equity funds and two debt funds. The three equity funds would be ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund , which is ranked well in our ranking methodology. We have specific ranking methodology which takes care of lot of statistical tools, so ICICI Focused Bluechip, UTI Opportunities Fund are two largecap funds and in the midcap and smallcap space look at SBI Emerging Business Fund , which has done well and it is ranked on top in that category and on the debt side if you have risk appetite then take the volatility and forgetting it is going to be at least half as volatile as an equity fund but if you have the timeframe right then IDFC Income Fund and HDFC Income Fund could do the trick for you.

Q: When you say timeframe, you are calling for a five year investment plan?

A: No. On the debt side my recommended timeframes would be about a year-and-a-half and for equities the holding period should be three to five years in Indian context is long-term.

Disclosure: Anand Rathi Private Wealth Management is recommending the fund to their clients but Feroze Azeez has no exposure in them.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Cheapness Is an Excellent Catalyst

I group my equity investments into three main categories:

Compounders: These are Warren Buffett "forever" stocks, or franchise businesses with durable competitive advantages that I'm willing to hold for a long time as long as the business continues to compound cash flow, dividends, and intrinsic value.

Cheap and Good: These are stocks that are not as high quality as the compounders, but are still above average businesses producing good returns on capital but are for some reason selling at a cheap price, often because of some temporary problem. These stocks are often Joel Greenblatt style Magic Formula stocks.

Cheap Assets: These are stocks that give you the opportunity to buy $1 worth of assets at a discount. Net-nets, stocks below tangible book, or stocks with hidden asset values fall into this group. Often times the businesses in this group have problems, but the market is offering you the assets for less than the value on the books, and you get the upside potential of the business improving without paying anything for it.

But I will invest in a fourth category on rare occasions that I refer to as "special situations," which is also what other value investors commonly call this area of investing.

Value Investing with a Catalyst

Joel Greenblatt wrote one of my favorite books called You Can Be a Stock Market Genius in which he expertly describes in detail (case studies included) many types of special situations. A special situation, generally defined, is a stock with some sort of corporate catalyst. such as a spinoff, reorganization or merger. Greenblatt made 40% annual returns for 20 years using the techniques he describes in the book.

However, I am not an expert in this area, and so I don't often invest in these situations, unless I'm comfortable with the underlying value. I have found that it is possible to outperform the market, potentially by a significant margin, by simply owning a diversified basket of undervalued stocks. You could potentially follo! w Joel Greenblatt's magic formula and do nothing else, and do extremely well over time. But there are investors who have done much better than that. Often these investors, like Greenblatt in his early years, have used special situations in their investment strategy.

I invest in spinoffs when I think the parent or the spinoff is undervalued, but I don't really buy spinoff stocks just because they've historically done very well (although an argument could be made for this simple idea as well). I occasionally invest in stocks that are involved with a merger or buyout, but again, the common thread is that I want to be comfortable with the valuation before investing. There are some investors that will invest in arbitrage strategies using the deal itself as the entire reason for investing. If the deal falls through, you're left with a sizable loss and a stock that you may or may not still want. I've never been attracted to those types of scenarios.

Value is its own Catalyst
I do spend a lot of time learning about special situations and over time, I may become more skilled in this corner of the value investing world, but for now, I prefer to maintain my diversified basket of above-average companies at below-average valuations. Just like many value investors are fascinated by trying to find franchise businesses because Buffett has done so well there, many value investors are also enthralled with stocks with catalysts, because Greenblatt and others have done extraordinarily well there. I agree with both of those camps, and both strategies can work if you become proficient at them.

But one thing I've learned over the years is that value, or cheapness, is its own catalyst. What I mean by this is that when a stock becomes cheap, that very cheapness may produce its own catalyst in the form of a corporate buyout or private equity group becoming interested. But even putting buyouts and mergers aside, when a stock becomes cheap enough, it at some point will cause other value investors to become ! intereste! d. This is mean reversion, and mean reversion is the most powerful force in markets. When it is applied without leverage (this is important) within the context of an investment strategy, it can yield outstanding results for the patient, disciplined practitioner.

My favorite investor is Walter Schloss, and although I presume he invested in special situations from time to time, he built his exemplary track record (20% returns for 47 years) on the foundation of buying cheap stocks. I doubt that he thought of his strategy this way, but he was essentially using cheapness as his catalyst. He simply tried to buy stocks cheap that had low amounts of debt, with the idea that eventually, these lowly levered companies as a group would survive, and thus the stock price and the valuation would rise (revert to the mean). In some instances, the businesses improved and that represented enormous upside potential for the stocks in his portfolio.

So I try not to worry too much about catalysts. It's a buzz word on Wall Street, and many investors are obsessed with identifying a catalyst. There is certainly nothing wrong with spending time identifying, evaluating, and analyzing a catalyst if you have the skills and time to do that. There are some outstanding investors I follow that do this regularly, and I learn a lot by reading their fund letters and blogs. I am always trying to improve. But the one thing to keep in mind is that if you properly identify cheap stocks, valuation often works as your tail wind, providing you with a built-in catalyst.

Two Examples of Stocks where Value became the Catalyst
Dell Inc. (DELL) and Ebix Inc. (EBIX) are two stocks that I've followed for some time now as both have shown up on Greenblatt's screen for months. I list these together because they have numerous similarities: Both got cheap because of certain problems, both have similar quality metrics such as above-average returns on capital, both are involved in a pending buyout, and both have CEOs with large stakes i! n the bus! iness.

We own DELL, but unfortunately didn't take a position in EBIX. I didn't get comfortable with the accounting, but that stock represents an interesting study on its own about how markets inefficiently price event risk and other uncertainties. I'll have a post discussing these two stocks, and why I might still take a position in EBIX, which has just agreed to sell itself to Goldman Sachs for $20 per share.

But both of these stocks became extremely cheap and both turned out to be special situations, but before the mergers were announced, these stocks began to appreciate significantly. This happens a lot with stocks that have problems, but become extremely cheap. At some point, value creates its own catalyst. Water finds its level, and mean reversion kicks in. It happens over and over and there will be plenty of other opportunities to capitalize on.

Monday, August 12, 2013

Top 5 Energy Stocks To Own For 2014

From a solar-power project sale to new predictions for coal's comeback, it's been a busy week for utilities. Here's what you need to know to stay current on your dividends' profits.

Duke forecasts sunshine
On Wednesday, Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK  ) announced its purchase of two California solar farms from Germany-based SolarWorld. The new acquisitions will add 21 megawatts of solar electricity to its current 61 MW of capacity. Collectively, the two farms will become Duke's largest commercial solar farm in the nation, and the company has already arranged a 20-year power purchase agreement with Edison International (NYSE: EIX  ) .

FirstEnergy plays management musical chairs
Following the retirement of two long-term leaders, FirstEnergy (NYSE: FE  ) announced this week that it's switching up high-level management in all four of its states' regulated utilities operations. Although the moves reflect positive promotions throughout, a management makeover of this scale could influence FirstEnergy's short-term efficiency or long-term strategic direction.

Top 5 Energy Stocks To Own For 2014: Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.(CLF)

Cliffs Natural Resources Inc., a mining and natural resources company, produces iron ore pellets, lump and fines iron ore, and metallurgical coal products. The company operates six iron ore mines in Michigan, Minnesota, and eastern Canada; two iron ore mining complexes in Western Australia; five metallurgical coal mines located in West Virginia and Alabama; and one thermal coal mine located in West Virginia. It also owns a 45% economic interest in a coking and thermal coal mine located in Queensland, Australia; and a 30% interest in Amapa, a Brazilian iron ore project in Latin America, as well as chromite properties in Ontario, Canada. The company, formerly known as Cleveland-Cliffs Inc, was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Michael]

    Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE:CLF) also had a great February, and finished up 48% for the month. The company reported fourth quarter of 2009 earnings of $0.75 per share, beating analystestimates of $0.39. The momentum from this positive earnings surprise carried the stock for the rest of the month.

Top 5 Energy Stocks To Own For 2014: Solazyme Inc (SZYM.O)

Solazyme, Inc. (Solazyme), incorporated on March 31, 2003, makes oil. The Company�� technology transforms a range of plant-based sugars into oils. Its renewable products can replace or enhance oils derived from the world�� three existing sources-petroleum, plants and animal fats. The Company is focused on commercializing its products into three target markets: fuels and chemicals, nutrition, and skin and personal care. In 2010, the Company launched its products, the Golden Chlorella line of dietary supplements. In March 2011, the Company launched its Algenist brand for the luxury skin care market through marketing and distribution arrangements with Sephora S.A. (Sephora International), Sephora USA, Inc. (Sephora USA), and QVC, Inc. (QVC).

The Company is engaged in development activities with multiple partners, including Chevron U.S.A. Inc., through its division Chevron Technology Ventures (Chevron), The Dow Chemical Company (Dow), Ecopetrol S.A. (Ecope trol), Qantas Airways Limited (Qantas) and Conopoco, Inc., doing business as Unilever (Unilever).

In 2010, the Company entered into a 50/50 joint venture with Roquette Freres, S.A. (Roquette). In November 2010, the Company entered into a joint venture and operating agreement for Solazyme Roquette Nutritionals with Roquette. In December 2010, the Company entered into an exclusive distribution relationship with Sephora International, and in January 2011, the Company entered into a distribution relationship with Sephora USA. Under the arrangements, each of Sephora International and Sephora USA will distribute the Algenist product line in their respective territories.

In Fuels and Chemicals market its renewable oils can be refined and sold as drop-in replacements for marine, motor vehicle and jet fuels, as well as replacements for chemicals that are traditionally derived from petroleum or other conventional oils. The Company work with its refining par tner Honeywell UOP to produce Soladiesel (renewable diesel! ),! Soladiesel renewable diesel for United States Naval vessels, and Solajet renewable jet fuel for both military and commercial application testing. In nutrition market the Company has developed microalgae-based food ingredients, including oils and powders that enhance the nutritional profile and functionality of food products while reducing costs for consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies. In Skin and Personal Care market the Company hs developed a portfolio of branded microalgae-based products. Its ingredient is Alguronic Acid, which the Company has formulated into a range of skin care products with anti-aging benefits. The Company is also developing algal oils as replacements for the oils used in skin and personal care products.

The Company competes with BP p.l.c., Royal Dutch Shell plc, and Exxon Mobil Corporation, jatropha, camelina, SALOV North America Corporation, Archer Daniels Midland Company, Cargill, Incorporated, DSM Food Specialties and Danisco A/S< /p>

Best Medical Companies To Watch In Right Now: Northgate Minerals Corporation(NXG)

Northgate Minerals Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploring, developing, processing, and mining gold and copper deposits in Canada and Australia. Its principal producing assets include 100% interests in the Fosterville and Stawell Gold mines in Victoria, Australia; and the Kemess South mine located in north-central British Columbia, Canada. The company was formerly known as Northgate Exploration Limited and changed its name to Northgate Minerals Corporation in May 2004. Northgate Minerals Corporation was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Christopher Barker]

    I've been reminding Fools to consider positioning for Northgate Minerals' golden explosion for months, and patient gold investors continue to await the day when Northgate's powerful prospects are more fully reflected in the shares. Construction of the critical Young-Davidson mine continues right on schedule, and first production now stands about two quarters away. That means Northgate is reasonably likely to achieve its 2012 production target of 300,000 ounces, followed by 350,000 ounces in 2013. Meanwhile, Northgate recently drilled "one of the best holes ever intersected on the property" -- featuring 4.31 grams of gold per ton over a very wide 79.6-meter segment -- from a new discovery zone outside of the existing 2.8 million-ounce reserve.

    If Young-Davidson were Northgate's sole asset, these shares would still be undervalued here at about $2.60 per share. With a preliminary assessment looming for the reworked Kemess Underground project, a new drill program at the Awakening Gold project in Nevada, and two operating gold mines in Australia, Northgate figures among the clearest bargains in the gold patch.

Top 5 Energy Stocks To Own For 2014: Archer Ltd (ARCHER.OL)

Archer Ltd, formerly Seawell Limited is a Bermuda-based global oilfield service company. The Company provides drilling services, such as platform drilling, land drilling, modular rings, directional drilling, drill bits, tubular services, drilling and completion fluids, cementing tools, plugs and packers, underbalanced services, rentals and engineering. It specialises also in well services, such as wireline intervention, specialist intervention, frac valves, wireline logging, integrity diagnostics, imaging, production monitoring, coiled tubing, completion services and fishing. As of January 3, 2012, the Company's organizational structure centered on four geographic and strategic areas: North America (NAM), North Sea (NRS), Latin America (LAM) and Emerging Markets & Technologies (EMT). As of December 31, 2010, it was active through a number of subsidiaries, namely Seawell, Allis-Chalmers Energy, Gray Wireline, Rig Inspection Services and TecWel, among others.

Top 5 Energy Stocks To Own For 2014: Occidental Petroleum Corporation(OXY)

Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company primarily in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Oil and Gas; Chemical; and Midstream, Marketing, and Other. The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids, and condensate and natural gas. Its domestic oil and gas operations are located in Texas, New Mexico, California, Kansas, Oklahoma, Utah, Colorado, North Dakota, and West Virginia; and international oil and gas operations are located in Bahrain, Bolivia, Colombia, Iraq, Libya, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. As of December 31, 2010, this segment had proved reserves of approximately 3,363 million barrels of oil equivalent. The Chemical segment manufactures and markets basic chemicals, including chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, and ethylene dichloride products; vinyls, such as vinyl chloride monomer and polyvinyl chloride; and other chemicals comprising chlorinated isocyanurates, resorcinol, sodium silicates, and calcium chloride products. The Midstream, Marketing, and Other segment gathers, treats, processes, transports, stores, purchases, and markets crude oil that includes natural gas liquids and condensate, as well as natural gas and carbon dioxide. This segment also involves in the power generation; and trades around its assets comprising pipelines and storage capacity, as well as oil and gas, other commodities, and commodity-related securities. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is based in Los Angeles, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Paul]

    Occidental Petroleum (OXY-N75.722.463.36%) is an integrated oil-and-gas company, with operations in the U.S.

    The Los Angeles-based company has strong operating momentum, having grown 12-month sales 27 per cent and net income 76 per cent. Its stock has been a top performer over a three-year span, having gained 12 per cent a year, on average. Occidental has a market capitalization of $78-billion. It receives positive rankings from 84 per cent of researchers. It is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Jan. 26. Analysts forecast a 17 per cent year-over-year rise in adjusted earnings and a 7.6 per cent gain in sales. Occidental has an average earnings surprise rate of 6.6 per cent. It beat the consensus expectation by 8.2 per cent last quarter.

    Like Chevron and El Paso, what is most attractive about Occidental is its relative value amid strong secular growth. Its stock sells for a forward earnings multiple of 13 and a book value multiple of 2.5, 28 per cent and 43 per cent peer discounts. Its PEG ratio, the stock's P/E divided by researcher's long-term growth forecast, of 0.3 represents a 70 per cent discount to estimated fair value, a compelling bargain. Occidental pays a quarterly dividend of 38 cents, converting to an annual yield of 1.6 per cent. It has grown the payout 16 per cent and 18 per cent annually, on average, respectively, over three- and five-year spans. JPMorgan, optimistic about Occidental's long-term trajectory, is skeptical of the recent rally.

    Bullish Scenario: Goldman Sachs has a target of $111, suggesting a 13 per cent advance.

    Bearish Scenario: JPMorgan has a target of $90, implying that the stock will drop 8 per cent.

  • [By Steven Goldberg]

    Occidental Petroleum (OXY, $86.66, 3.0%) finds most of its oil and gas in Texas and California, largely through cost-effective techniques of drilling in proven oilfields. The company, which also operates abroad, has a strong balance sheet that lets it take advantage of distressed properties. Unlike many major oil and gas companies, Oxy Pete isn't burdened by a low-profit refining and marketing business (that is, gasoline stations). The stock changes hands at 12 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months. Oxy says it will probably buy back shares in the near future.

  • [By Gordon Wilcox]

    Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) Occidental, the fourth-largest U.S. oil company by market value, announced earlier this year it would reduce its Bakken Shale footprint due to high operating costs. However, the California-based company emphasized Bakken is still part of its long-term plans. Additionally, it should be noted Occidental said it would shift resources out of the Bakken to other U.S. shale plays, such as the Monterey Shale and the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico.

    As is the case with most oil equities, there are risks that must be acknowledged with Occidental. First, while the company does not drill offshore, it does operate in some politically volatile places, including Libya. Second, the company is the dominant producer in the Monterey Shale, but California has been slow to approve new drilling permits there. That could weight on Occidental’s output numbers over the medium-term.

    On the bright side, Occidental does compensate investors for their patience. The dividend has more than quadrupled since 2003.

Friday, August 9, 2013

Top Dividend Stocks To Buy Right Now

France Telcom (NYSE: FTE  ) is a classic income stock. Its double-digit dividend yield is powered by stable cash flows in a maturing industry.

But things are changing. The company recently slashed its promised dividend payouts in order to invest more in high-growth markets. Share prices took a serious hit, which paradoxically works out all right for long-term investors. The dividend may be smaller, but it's still generous, and lower entry prices means locking in a higher yield. This is particularly interesting when you reinvest your dividend checks along the way.

So even after all the hacking and slashing, France Telecom's yield is orders of magnitude richer than American contemporaries AT&T (NYSE: T  ) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ  ) . It's fully comparable to the high-yield payouts of rural American telecoms such as CenturyLink (NYSE: CTL  ) and Windstream (NASDAQ: WIN  ) , but with the added bonus of growth plans in emerging markets. The French stock strikes a unique balance between generous yields, large-scale operations, and vibrant growth plans.

Top Dividend Stocks To Buy Right Now: Meritus Minerals Ltd (MER.V)

Meritus Minerals Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral resource properties in Australia and Mongolia. It primarily focuses on the exploration of gold, copper, zinc, and base-metals. The company�s principal property includes the Gutain Davaa gold project consisting of 2 exploration licenses covering 3,928 hectares located in Mongolia. Meritus Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Top Dividend Stocks To Buy Right Now: LoopNet Inc.(LOOP)

LoopNet, Inc. owns and operates an online marketplace for commercial real estate in the United States. The company?s online marketplace, LoopNet.com enables commercial real estate agents working on behalf of property owners and landlords to list properties for sale or for lease, and submit detailed information on property listings, including descriptions, financial and tenant information, photographs, and property characteristics to find a buyer or tenant. As of December 31, 2011, the LoopNet online marketplace contained approximately 820,391 listings. It also operates BizBuySell and BizQuest online marketplaces that enable business owners, sellers, and brokers to list and search for operating businesses for sale; LoopLink, an online real estate marketing and database services suite that enables commercial real estate firms to showcase their available properties on the LoopNet marketplace and brokerage firm?s own Website using the company?s hosted search software. In ad dition, the company provides Property Comps, a database to review precedent sales data to inform commercial real estate valuation analysis based on asset type, asking and sale price, sale date, property address, and size; and Property Facts that aggregates data from the LoopNet marketplace, LoopNet research, independent data providers, public records, and LoopNet members to deliver data on properties. Further, it offers advertising and lead generation; operates LandsofAmerica and LandAndFarm online marketplaces for rural land for sale; and offers REApplications that provides an integrated suite of commercial brokerage automation software. The company was formerly known as Loop Ventures, Inc. and changed its name to LoopNet, Inc. in November 1998. LoopNet, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

5 Best Dividend Stocks To Watch Right Now: Abbastar Uranium Corp (ABA.V)

Abbastar Resources Corp. engages in the identification, acquisition, and exploration of mineral interests in Canada. The company primarily explores for gold, pyrite, copper sulphide, zinc sulphide, copper, and uranium deposits. It owns an option to acquire a 100% undivided interest in the Talbot Lake project located in the Talbot Lake Area in northern Ontario, Canada; and holds a 35% interest in the Doran Property consisting of 47 contiguous mineral claims covering an area of approximately 2,500 hectares located in the Baie Johan Beetz area of Costebelle Township in Quebec, Canada. The company also has an option to earn a 100% interest in the Kid Copper Property that covers an area of approximately 67.5 hectares in the Liard Mining division, northern British Columbia; the Smith Creek Property, which covers an area of 189 hectares located in Hedley, British Columbia; and the Manson River Property located in the Omineca Mining Division in central British Columbia, Canada. Th e company was formerly known as Abbastar Uranium Corp. and changed its name to Abbastar Resources Corp. in July 2009. Abbastar Resources Corp. was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

LNG Trouble Down Under

Australia has its sights set on a lofty goal: to be the world's top natural gas exporter. According to Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-A  ) CEO Peter Voser, though, there are some big problems getting in the way. With LNG export facilities running over budget and past due dates, the country's shot at establishing a first-mover status may be at risk from other new countries looking to supply the Asia-Pacific market.

Why should we listen to Shell on Australian LNG? The company has over $30 billion tied up in four separate LNG export facilities down under. In this video, Fool.com contributors Tyler Crowe and Aimee Duffy take a look at why Australia wants to get these facilities up and running quickly, and discuss some other players in the Asia-Pacific market to look out for.

With domestic natural gas production growing faster than consumption, the United States is expected to become a net exporter of natural gas by the end of the decade. Cheniere Energy will become the first LNG exporter approved to ship to high-margin countries that are not members of a free trade agreement. With natural gas prices expected to rest in the $4-$5 range per MMbtu, Cheniere is primed for solid gains once the initial LNG trains start chugging in the first half of 2015. Don't wait until then – this 2013 darling continues to outperform the broad markets. Be sure to read all the details in this premium research report. 

link

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Of Apple Stores and Automakers

On this day in economic and business history ...

The first Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) Store opened to the public at 10 in the morning on May 19, 2001. Situated in the luxe Tysons Corner Center in McLean, a Virginia suburb of Washington, D.C., it was Apple's beachhead to the retail market, and three hours later it was joined by a second Apple store in Glendale, Calif. It was also seen as a big risk.

Apple was coming off several straight quarterly losses and was still just a computer company -- the first iPod wasn't released until later that year. PC competitors were closing their own dedicated stores as the dot-com bust crunched profits and dented interest. It took a certain boldness to open stores dedicated to a very narrow product lineup, consisting then of Macs and iMacs. Tech journalist Joe Wilcox was there to experience the first Apple Store for himself, and here are some of his key takeaways:

Best High Tech Stocks To Buy Right Now

I was surprised at the time that Apple didn't locate in the posher [Tysons Galleria, or Tysons II] mall, which seemed to click more with the Mac demographic. But Tysons I had more foot traffic. When Apple Store opened, Tysons Corner Center averaged about 57,000 customers a day -- or more than 21 million shoppers a year.

Apple Store's look was unique and quite distinctive in 2001, particularly for a shop selling computers. Here's how I described it 10 years ago today: "The store sports hardwood floors, high ceilings, bright lights and clean lines -- similar to the look of the trendy clothing retailer Gap (NYSE: GPS  ) . The similarity is not surprising, considering Mickey Drexler, CEO of the Gap, is a member of Apple's board." San Francisco-based Fisher Development, which also constructed Gap stores, built the first Apple retail shops. "Contributing to the clean look of the store is the lack of network cables connecting computers to the Internet, as Apple has incorporated AirPort wireless networking to link Macs and other products to the Net."

Some of the first store's features now seem positively quaint. With only one primary product -- computers -- Apple divided the store into quadrants, each devoted to a different computing tier. There was a "software alley" that included some non-Apple peripherals. You could burn CDs in the store! Now you can't even find a DVD drive, let alone a CD drive, on most Apple computers.

Those first two stores welcomed 7,700 visitors in their first two days of operation and sold $600,000 worth of Apple products during those two days. Even then, the fanaticism of Apple fans was evident, as several hundred people camped out hours before the opening to be the first inside. After a decade of Apple Stores, the company had grown its retail footprint to 323 locations in 11 countries, which had welcomed a total of 1 billion visitors through their doors since the first store opened. By then, Apple Stores had become by far the most efficient retail locations in the world in sales per square foot of space, trouncing second-place contender Tiffany by roughly 2-to-1. Tiffany's $3,000 in sales per square foot was once the gold standard, but Apple earned just over $6,000 per square foot in every store for 2012.

The first General of the automakers
Buick was incorporated on May 19, 1903. When General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) was founded five years later, Buick became its first nameplate -- General Motors was, in fact, originally created as a holding company for Buick. By this point, founder David Buick had been pushed out of the company, and its new owner installed William C. Durant to manage the growing automaker. Under Durant's leadership, Buick and GM grew to become America's largest automaker in the days before Ford (NYSE: F  ) pioneered the assembly line. This success enabled a GM to go on a buying spree, and before long the company amassed several familiar nameplates: Oldsmobile and Cadillac were added by 1909, and Durant's ouster and later return during the 1910s brought Chevrolet into the mix as well.

However, GM began falling behind Ford following the development of the assembly line. Ford's commitment to one low-cost model, churned out by the millions, outpaced GM's complex (but forward-thinking) strategy of developing different brands and models to appeal to different segments of the population. By 1923, GM had built a million Chevys, but a year later Ford built its 10 millionth Model T. Even though GM trailed Ford for years, it became the first automaker ever added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) in 1915 (and began its tenure as the longest-serving component automaker when re-added in 1925) thanks to Durant's embrace of the public markets, in stark contrast to Ford's reluctance -- the Model T maker didn't go public until 1956.

Through it all, Buick was on the forefront of automotive design -- a 1904 model is still considered optimally engineered a century later, and Buick also produced closed-body cars before Ford and would advance engine technology throughout the '20s and '30s -- but its near-luxury marquee (second only to Cadillac in prestige) kept it from ever becoming a true mass-market brand. A century after Buick's incorporation, Chevrolet remains by far the leading GM nameplate, with about 10 times as many vehicle sales as Buick in any given month.

Apple has a history of cranking out revolutionary products ... and then creatively destroying them with something better. Read about the future of Apple in the free report, "Apple Will Destroy Its Greatest Product." Can Apple really disrupt its own iPhones and iPads? Find out by clicking here.

Monday, August 5, 2013

Income Investors Love These 5 REITs -- and So Should You

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- If you're an income investor, real estate investment trusts (better known as REITs) probably hold a special place in your heart. After all, this special class of stock is basically purpose-built to generate investment income. That's saying a lot in an environment where rates are effectively zero.

But with around 220 REITs floating around on public exchanges, knowing which ones to buy and which to ignore can be quite a chore. That's why today we're taking a closer look at five favorite REITs for income investors.

As the name implies, REITs own real estate (or real estate-related assets like mortgages). But don't think of these stocks as a way to get exposure to the real estate sector. Instead, most are better thought of as a pure-play income generation tool. That's largely because of a tax law passed in 1960 gives REITs the ability to skip paying taxes by passing on earnings to investors. The caveat is that they have to distribute 90% of their earnings to their owners. As a result, they typically sport very big dividend yields.

2013 has been a stagger-start year for REIT investments. By and large, these trusts have failed to match the breakneck pace of the S&P 500. But with relative strength coming back into the sector this summer, that could be about to change.

There are many different flavors of REITs on the market right now; here's a look at five that offer a best-in-class combination of high yields, gain potential, and niche business appeal.

These REIT names are worth owning in 2013.

Equity Residential

Apartment landlord Equity Residential (EQR) owns more than 550 communities spread across some of the most attractive markets in the United States. That positioning gives EQR some important advantages – with properties centered around large metro areas, occupancy rates are high, multifamily inventories are low, and barriers to entry keep that arrangement from getting thrown off-balance.

Zeroed out interest rates have helped spur home buying again, but they haven't eroded the benefits of being a renter in urban areas where EQR's target demographic of younger, often mobile, professionals live. While February's $9 billion acquisition of Archstone is still getting shaken out in shares of EQR, the firm looks well positioned to post impressive increases in sales and profitability once the dust settles.

Typically, residential REITs offer fewer benefits than their commercial peers. That's because shorter standard leases coupled with regulations that favor residential tenants. Despite that fact, EQR's solid demographics and attractive portfolio gives it returns that few other residential REITs can claim. At last count, the firm pays out a 3.4% dividend yield.

HCP

HCP (HCP) is a healthcare REIT that owns hospitals, medical office buildings, and senior housing/nursing facilities. That niche exposure makes HCP more attractive than your typical trust – especially as aging baby boomers ramp up their healthcare and senior living needs. Right now, HCP pays out a hefty 4.6% dividend yield.

Because HCP is the landlord, not the service provider, it's able to take advantage of the increased demand for healthcare services without being subjected to regulatory headwinds. Even if legislation squeezed margins for hospitals, for instance, it doesn't change the fact that those facilities still need physical locations.

Like most commercial operators, HCP leases properties on a triple-net basis. That means that the tenant, not HCP, is on the hook for real estate taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs. That means that HCP just collects a regular, predictable rent check from its tenants, along with a pre-set price bump each year for inflation. For income investors, that's a winning combination.

Realty Income

They call Realty Income (O) the "monthly dividend company." The $10 billion retail REIT has been paying out a monthly dividend for the last 44 years, making it an especially attractive name for investors who need faster-paced income streams. It's a hefty payout too: Those monthly dividend checks add up to a 4.5% yield at current price levels.

Realty Income has interests in more than 3,600 properties, the vast majority of which are freestanding single-tenant retail units. Like HCP, Realty Income signs long-term triple-net leases with its tenants, a necessary component of being able to pay out consistent income each month. The long-term nature of Realty Income's tenants is another key to its financial health – on average less than 3% of tenants are up for renewal each year, which means that occupancy rates have a pretty strong floor built-in.

Financially, Realty Income is in excellent shape – just don't compare the firm's balance sheet outside of the sector. Obviously, the REIT business is capital intense, and since REITs have to pay out the vast majority of income to investors, it's very difficult to build up a war chest. That said, Realty Income sports relatively low leverage and plenty of untapped credit. This trust is a good go-to for any income investor's portfolio right now.

Plum Creek Timber

Plum Creek Timber (PCL) isn't your typical commercial REIT. Instead, the firm is a niche trust that operates in the timber business, one of the less conventional businesses allowed by the REIT Act signed in 1960. PCL owns 6.6 million acres of timberlands in 19 states.

Only the timberland business falls under REIT rules, with logging operations treated as a traditional taxable corporation. For all intents and purposes, though, PCL's bread and butter remains its timberland; the firm earns more money through recreation, development, and conservation efforts than through logging. That could change as the housing market heats up, especially as supply constraints push timber prices higher. Either way, Plum Creek's combination of tax-advantaged REIT income and conventional business makes the firm a unique name to own right now...

Financially, PCL is in strong shape, with more than $350 million in cash offsetting a reasonable $3 billion debt load. While PCL resorted to liquidating land to fund its dividend in the wake of the Great Recession, recent acquisitions should help calm investors' concerns. For the moment, this stock pays a 3.5% dividend yield. While Plum Creek isn't a conventional REIT by most measures, it does make a great non-core holding for income-seekers in 2013.

Digital Realty Trust

Last up is $8 billion specialty REIT Digital Realty Trust (DLR). With a 5.7% yield, DLR sports the biggest dividend payout of today's names right now.

Digital Realty trust is unique because of its technology focus. The firm owns 16.8 million square feet of datacenters, internet gateways, and tech firm office buildings spread across the country. Exposure to such an in-demand, specialized type of properties presents a major tailwind for DLR right now -- particularly in the datacenter business, which has been growing at a fast pace as consumers' appetites for hosted data continues to grow.

Top 10 Heal Care Companies To Buy Right Now

That also means that DLR's tenants are generally sticker than most. There aren't big barriers preventing an office from moving, but the huge investments tech firms make to customize their datacenters help to keep them in one place. Tenants who move have to bear the additional switching costs of replicating their previous setups. Data trends are unlikely to abate anytime in the foreseeable future – as consumers carry around more data-hungry smartphones and tablets than ever before, capacity at phone carriers, ISPs, and cloud storage services will continue to go for a premium. And DLR's shareholders should continue to benefit.

To see these short squeezes in action, check out this week's REIT portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.

Sunday, August 4, 2013

Can You Trust the Cash Flow at Resources Connection?

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Resources Connection (Nasdaq: RECN  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Resources Connection generated $31.7 million cash while it booked net income of $24.1 million. That means it turned 5.6% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Resources Connection look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With 19.9% of operating cash flow coming from questionable sources, Resources Connection investors should take a closer look at the underlying numbers. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, stock-based compensation and related tax benefits provided the biggest boost, at 20.6% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 8.4% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Can your retirement portfolio provide you with enough income to last? You'll need more than Resources Connection. Learn about crafting a smarter retirement plan in "The Shocking Can't-Miss Truth About Your Retirement." Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add Resources Connection to My Watchlist.

Saturday, August 3, 2013

A Catastrophe That Changed the World

On this day in economic and business history...

"All San Francisco May Burn" -- The New York Times, April 19, 1906, the day after the earthquake:

At midnight the fire still roars. Fleeing inhabitants can see from miles around the pillars of fire towering skyward. The crash of falling ruins and the muffled reports of the exploding dynamite reach the ear at regular intervals. ...

The exact loss of life never will be known. Hundreds have been incinerated. Tonight the city resembles one vast shambles with the red glare of the fire throwing shadows across the worn and panic-stricken faces of the homeless.

"Earthquake and Flames Bring Death and Ruin to City of San Francisco" -- The Washington Post, April 19, 1906:

The greatest earthquake disaster in the history of the United States visited San Francisco early yesterday morning. The earthquake was followed by a fire which was still burning at 2 a.m. today, and which has covered most of the affected area.

It is impossible now to say anything definite of the loss of life.

"The San Francisco Horror" -- Chicago Daily Tribune, April 19, 1906:

Chicago extends her sympathy to San Francisco. The world was generous to Chicago in the days of 1871. San Francisco relatively has suffered more than Chicago did, and needs help. All America will answer and Chicago will not let the other cities outdo her in generosity. San Francisco will rise again more splendid than ever. The Golden Gate can never lose its commercial importance, and it is impossible that there should not be a great city there. But there is no city now, except as it may be found in the courage, pride, and self-confidence of the people who once lived in San Francisco.


Source: The New York Times, April 19, 1906.

The ultimate casualty reports from the devastating San Francisco earthquake of April 18, 1906 were later revised upward to 3,000 out of an estimated population of 400,000. More than half the city's population was made homeless by a fire that raged for three days and destroyed 28,000 buildings. In contemporary terms, monetary losses of at least $400 million represented more than 1% of the entire national GDP. By this measure, the earthquake was by far the most economically devastating disaster ever to strike the U.S.

The earthquake occurred at the beginning of one of the Dow Jones Industrial Average's (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) most damaging bear markets and was a contributing factor to the recession and widespread bank failures that led to the Panic of 1907. An economics paper by Professors Kerry Odell and Marc Weidenmier of Scripps College makes the case that the requirements of a gold-standard economy forced London insurers (the primary agents of most San Francisco insurance policies) to shift significant gold reserves to the U.S. as they paid out claims. As a result of its tighter gold supply, the Bank of England raised interest rates on American financing, which reversed the outflows by 1907 and led to a short but sharp recession in the U.S.

The recession and its attendant panic, only solved by the personal intervention of financier J. P. Morgan, would lead to the creation of the Federal Reserve. Would any of this have happened without San Francisco's utter destruction?

A new threat to the U.S. economy
What macro trend was Warren Buffett referring to when he said "this is the tapeworm that's eating at American competitiveness"? Find out in our free report: "What's Really Eating At America's Competitiveness." You'll also discover an idea to profit as companies work to eradicate this efficiency-sucking tapeworm. Just click here for free, immediate access.

Undervalued Stocks To Buy For 2017

Undervalued Stocks To Buy For 2017